The Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M just released its July 2026 Texas Housing Insight report, covering May sales activity — and for once, the local headline out of North Texas isn't just "things are less bad." In Fort Worth-Arlington, home prices actually turned a corner.Here's what's happening statewide, and what it means for buyers and sellers here in Denton and Tarrant County.

The Big Local Headline: Fort Worth-Arlington Prices Are Rising Again

After a year of steady declines across nearly every major Texas metro, the Fort Worth-Arlington market just posted a small year-over-year price gain in May — the first positive reading of the current cycle, which began back in June 2025.That puts Tarrant County ahead of the curve statewide. Statewide home prices were still down 0.6 percent year-over-year in May, marking 12 consecutive months of declines, though the pace of those declines is clearly moderating. Austin remains the weak spot, with prices still off 2.9 percent. Fort Worth-Arlington, by contrast, isn't just stabilizing — it's now on the plus side.That's a meaningful signal if you've been sitting on the fence about listing your home in Tarrant County. The correction that's been weighing on sellers for the better part of a year appears to have run its course locally.

DFW Inventory Overhang Is Easing

Beyond pricing, the supply picture in our area is improving too. TRERC specifically called out Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth as the two metros where both active listings and months of supply declined year-over-year in May — a sign the inventory overhang that's built up over the past year is starting to ease. Houston and San Antonio are moving the opposite direction, with inventory and pricing pressure still building in both. Statewide, active inventory sits at a 5.3-month supply, down slightly from 5.4 months a year ago — the first year-over-year decline in months of supply since this down-cycle began. For a housing market that's been getting steadily more oversupplied for a year, that's a real shift, and DFW is one of the two metros leading it.

Sales Activity: Steady, Not Spectacular

Statewide, Texas recorded 33,661 closed sales in May, a modest increase from a year ago, pushing year-to-date sales 1.9 percent ahead of last year's pace. Regionally, performance was mixed — Austin continued to lead sales growth, Dallas posted only modest gains, and both Houston and San Antonio saw slight declines.The statewide median sales price reached $340,000 in May, up from April's $335,000 and essentially flat compared to a year ago.

Sellers Pulled Back Unexpectedly in May

One of the more surprising findings in this report: new listings statewide actually fell 4.7 percent from April to May, which runs counter to the normal seasonal pattern — May is typically the peak month for new listings hitting the market. Listings were down 6.3 percent year-over-year, and year-to-date new-listing activity is now running 0.3 percent behind last year. TRERC points to a mix of factors behind this: continued affordability pressure weighing on would-be buyers, and sellers staying cautious given weak pricing conditions heading into summer. Austin and San Antonio saw the most pronounced pullback in new listings relative to their typical spring pattern. For Tarrant and Denton County, this cautious seller behavior — combined with easing local inventory and now-rising Fort Worth-Arlington prices — is worth watching closely. Fewer new listings paired with tightening supply is generally a setup that favors sellers over time, if it continues.

Homes Are Selling Faster

Statewide, homes spent an average of 64 days on the market in May before selling, down from April, and the gap versus 2024/2025 marketing times continues to narrow. The inventory turnover ratio has now held steady for two consecutive months — sales activity is finally keeping pace with the growth in available inventory, rather than falling behind it.Median seller price cuts came in at $12,000 statewide in May, or 3.4 percent of the original list price — essentially in line with what sellers were cutting a year ago, not a sign of desperation, just a normalized market.

What This Means If You're Buying or Selling in Denton or Tarrant County

If you're selling: This is the best local data point in over a year. Fort Worth-Arlington prices are rising again, inventory pressure is easing rather than building, and DFW is one of only two major metros trending this direction. If you've been waiting for a better moment to list, the numbers suggest that moment may be arriving. If you're buying: Don't expect the deep price cuts and endless selection that characterized this market over the past year to persist. With months of supply now declining locally and prices ticking up in Fort Worth-Arlington, well-priced homes in good locations are likely to face more competition than they did a few months ago. If you're watching from the sidelines: Keep an eye on the next report or two. One month of price gains in Fort Worth-Arlington isn't a trend by itself but combined with the broader statewide moderation and DFW's improving inventory position, it's a meaningfully different picture than we've seen at any point in the last year.

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Sources - Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC), Texas A&M University. Texas Housing Insight | July 2026, covering May 2026 sales, inventory, and pricing data. trerc.tamu.eduData compiled by TRERC from the Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS® data, and the U.S. Census Bureau Survey of New Construction.Note: TRERC reports at the Dallas-Fort Worth metro and Fort Worth-Arlington sub-market level rather than by individual county. Figures cited above reflect the broader DFW region, which includes Tarrant and Denton County.